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Expeditions

Wolves on the Kill

An elk, fresh down, and a pack that hasn't eaten either. Meat for a week — theirs, unless you say otherwise.

Entity ID
wolves
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Take a quarter, leave the rest — 85% base
Riskiest option
Ignore it — follow their backtrail — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

Wolves on the Kill: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Drive them off with fireeven55%Food +150, Renown +2Fortune -1
Take a quarter, leave the restsafe85%Food +60, Fortune +1Fortune -1
Ignore it — follow their backtrailrisky32%Iron +120, Renown +2Food -20, Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Drive them off with fire (even, 55%)

Success: They yield the kill with bad grace. A week's meat, and a story that will grow teeth in the telling. → Food +150, Renown +2

Failure: The pack calls your bluff. You leave with all your hands and none of the elk. → Fortune -1

Take a quarter, leave the rest (safe, 85%)

Success: The old she-wolf watches you cut and carry, and lets it stand. Fair is fair. → Food +60, Fortune +1

Failure: A young male disagrees. You drop the meat and keep the fingers. → Fortune -1

Ignore it — follow their backtrail (risky, 32%)

Success: The trail leads to a den by an old mine mouth — and the mine still shows iron in the seam. → Iron +120, Renown +2

Failure: The trail loops. Wolves are not stupid. Dusk finds you exactly where you started, minus the daylight. → Food -20, Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

Wolves on the Kill: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Drive them off with fire43%51%55%59%67%
Take a quarter, leave the rest73%81%85%89%95%
Ignore it — follow their backtrail20%28%32%36%44%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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