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Expeditions

The Barrow Door Stands Open

An old king's barrow, and the sealing stone rolled aside. Fresh mud on the threshold. Whoever opened it may still be inside.

Entity ID
barrow
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Roll the stone back and mark it — 85% base
Riskiest option
Go in with torches — 32% base
Can end the run early
Yes
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Barrow Door Stands Open: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Go in with torchesrisky32%Iron +110, Renown +3Wood -20, Fortune -2, the party turns back
Roll the stone back and mark itsafe85%Stone +50, Renown +2, Fortune +1Fortune -1
Watch the door till duskeven55%Stone +30, Iron +60Food -25, Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Go in with torches (risky, 32%)

Success: Grave robbers, gone in a hurry — their sacks of old iron and one arm-ring still by the door. → Iron +110, Renown +3

Failure: The roof has other opinions. Everyone crawls out; the torches and one boot do not. → Wood -20, Fortune -2, the party turns back

Roll the stone back and mark it (safe, 85%)

Success: The stone seats with a boom. The nearest holdfast pays a finder's duty for the report. → Stone +50, Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: The stone slips and cracks. You leave it worse than you found it and don't mention your name. → Fortune -1

Watch the door till dusk (even, 55%)

Success: Two robbers come out blinking. They trade their haul for their horses and a head start. → Stone +30, Iron +60

Failure: Nobody comes out. The waiting costs a day and the fire burns your supper. → Food -25, Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Barrow Door Stands Open: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Go in with torches20%28%32%36%44%
Roll the stone back and mark it73%81%85%89%95%
Watch the door till dusk43%51%55%59%67%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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