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Expeditions

The Night Something Fell

A streak of green fire crosses the night, and the thud arrives a breath later, close. The horses hate it. The smiths in your party do not.

Entity ID
starfall
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Sell the location to a maester — 85% base
Riskiest option
Find it and dig at dawn — 55% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Night Something Fell: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Find it and dig at dawneven55%Iron +160, Renown +3Fortune -1
Sell the location to a maestersafe85%Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1nothing gained, nothing lost
Calm the horses, break camp earlysafe85%Fortune +1Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Find it and dig at dawn (even, 55%)

Success: A scorched furrow, a pit, and at the bottom a lump of sky-iron the smiths handle like a relic. Because it is one. → Iron +160, Renown +3

Failure: The furrow ends in a bog that has already swallowed its prize. The bog is not negotiating. → Fortune -1

Sell the location to a maester (safe, 85%)

Success: The nearest maester pays in coin and grain for the bearing, delighted beyond dignity. → Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1

Failure: The maester notes your bearing 'matches three other reports' and pays in thanks. Thanks buys no grain. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Calm the horses, break camp early (safe, 85%)

Success: Whatever fell, it fell on somebody else's luck. Your road is quiet and your horses forgive you by noon. → Fortune +1

Failure: All day the party looks backward. Nothing is wrong except the feeling that something might have been wonderful. → Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Night Something Fell: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Find it and dig at dawn43%51%55%59%67%
Sell the location to a maester73%81%85%89%95%
Calm the horses, break camp early73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

Iron Realms is an original work of fantasy strategy. “Iron Realms” is a working project name, not necessarily the game’s final title. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any other game or franchise. The game's own lore, names, and artwork are original or used under CC0/CC-BY/OFL licences (see the in-game Credits). The community section also hosts unofficial fan tributes — quizzes and diversions made for fun, not part of the game — which reference other fictional worlds under their own labels; those are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to their respective rights holders. Pre-alpha, and built in public. Nothing is for sale. No purchases are available, no payment is accepted, and no money is taken. Any prices named anywhere on this site describe the intended model only, and the game will not accept payment until it is out of pre-alpha. Iron Realms is an early build under active development: features, balance, prices and the game's holdings and systems are conceptual, and may change, move or disappear between visits. Progress may be reset while the realm is being built. Treat anything you read here as a work in progress rather than a promise.