Home · Database · Expeditions · The Night Something Fell

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Expeditions

The Night Something Fell

A streak of green fire crosses the night, and the thud arrives a breath later, close. The horses hate it. The smiths in your party do not.

Entity ID
starfall
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Sell the location to a maester — 85% base
Riskiest option
Find it and dig at dawn — 55% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Night Something Fell: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Find it and dig at dawneven55%Iron +160, Renown +3Fortune -1
Sell the location to a maestersafe85%Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1nothing gained, nothing lost
Calm the horses, break camp earlysafe85%Fortune +1Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Find it and dig at dawn (even, 55%)

Success: A scorched furrow, a pit, and at the bottom a lump of sky-iron the smiths handle like a relic. Because it is one. → Iron +160, Renown +3

Failure: The furrow ends in a bog that has already swallowed its prize. The bog is not negotiating. → Fortune -1

Sell the location to a maester (safe, 85%)

Success: The nearest maester pays in coin and grain for the bearing, delighted beyond dignity. → Food +70, Stone +30, Renown +1, Fortune +1

Failure: The maester notes your bearing 'matches three other reports' and pays in thanks. Thanks buys no grain. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Calm the horses, break camp early (safe, 85%)

Success: Whatever fell, it fell on somebody else's luck. Your road is quiet and your horses forgive you by noon. → Fortune +1

Failure: All day the party looks backward. Nothing is wrong except the feeling that something might have been wonderful. → Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Night Something Fell: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Find it and dig at dawn43%51%55%59%67%
Sell the location to a maester73%81%85%89%95%
Calm the horses, break camp early73%81%85%89%95%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

Iron Realms is an original work of fantasy strategy. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to any other game or franchise, and “Iron Realms” is a working project name rather than necessarily the final title. Its lore, names and artwork are original or used under CC0/CC-BY/OFL licences (see the in-game Credits). The community section also hosts unofficial fan tributes — quizzes and diversions made for fun, not part of the game — which name other fictional worlds under their own labels and are likewise not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to their rights holders. Pre-alpha, built in public. Nothing is for sale. No payment is accepted, and any price named here describes the intended model only. This is an early build — features, balance and prices are conceptual and may change or disappear between visits, and progress may be reset. Treat anything here as work in progress rather than a promise. Every page here is recorded: a first-party cookie, your IP address, your device and where you came from, and — when you are signed in — your account, are logged for site analytics; see what we record and why.