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Expeditions
The Mist That Doesn't Lift
By midmorning the mist should have burned off. It hasn't. Sound carries wrong in it, and the road you know feels like a road you don't.
- Entity ID
mist- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Halt and wait it out — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Follow the bell you keep almost hearing — 32% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halt and wait it out | safe | 85% | Food -20, Fortune +2 | Food -30 |
| Walk on, roped together | even | 55% | Renown +2, Fortune +1 | Fortune -1 |
| Follow the bell you keep almost hearing | risky | 32% | Food +90, Renown +1 | Fortune -2 |
What the chronicle records
Halt and wait it out (safe, 85%)
Success: It lifts by dusk. The delay costs supper and buys you the sight of the washed-out road you'd have taken at speed. → Food -20, Fortune +2
Failure: It sits for a day. Nothing worse than boredom finds you, but nothing better either. → Food -30
Walk on, roped together (even, 55%)
Success: Slow, blind, and correct. You come out the far side with a story that will be a haunting by the third telling. → Renown +2, Fortune +1
Failure: A cart wheel finds the ditch by feel. Nothing breaks except the schedule. → Fortune -1
Follow the bell you keep almost hearing (risky, 32%)
Success: A shepherd's chapel, a real bell, and a monk who trades smoked fish for news of the road behind you. → Food +90, Renown +1
Failure: There is no bell. There never was a bell. You stop saying the word 'bell' by unspoken agreement and camp where you stand. → Fortune -2
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halt and wait it out | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
| Walk on, roped together | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Follow the bell you keep almost hearing | 20% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 44% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.