Home · Database · Expeditions · The Flooded Ford

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Expeditions

The Flooded Ford

Spring melt has taken the ford. The water is brown and fast, and the bridge two days south costs you time you may not have.

Entity ID
ford
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Take the long bridge south — 85% base
Riskiest option
Swim the horses across — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

The Flooded Ford: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Take the long bridge southsafe85%Food +60Food +20, Fortune -1
Swim the horses acrossrisky32%Food +130, Renown +2, Fortune +1Food -40, Fortune -2
Lash a raft from deadfalleven55%Food +80, Wood +30, Fortune +1Iron -20, Fortune -1

What the chronicle records

Take the long bridge south (safe, 85%)

Success: Two dull days, dry boots. The wagoners sell you grain cheap out of boredom. → Food +60

Failure: The bridge toll has doubled since the war. You pay it, grumbling. → Food +20, Fortune -1

Swim the horses across (risky, 32%)

Success: The horses find the old causeway under the flood — across in an hour, and the far bank's fish weirs are untended. → Food +130, Renown +2, Fortune +1

Failure: A pack horse goes under and takes the tents with it. You cross, poorer and soaked. → Food -40, Fortune -2

Lash a raft from deadfall (even, 55%)

Success: The raft holds. You even ferry a stranded shepherd, who pays in cheese and gossip. → Food +80, Wood +30, Fortune +1

Failure: The raft breaks up midstream. Everyone lives; the axes don't. → Iron -20, Fortune -1

Fortune, at this scene

The Flooded Ford: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Take the long bridge south73%81%85%89%95%
Swim the horses across20%28%32%36%44%
Lash a raft from deadfall43%51%55%59%67%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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