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Expeditions
The Flooded Ford
Spring melt has taken the ford. The water is brown and fast, and the bridge two days south costs you time you may not have.
- Entity ID
ford- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Take the long bridge south — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Swim the horses across — 32% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take the long bridge south | safe | 85% | Food +60 | Food +20, Fortune -1 |
| Swim the horses across | risky | 32% | Food +130, Renown +2, Fortune +1 | Food -40, Fortune -2 |
| Lash a raft from deadfall | even | 55% | Food +80, Wood +30, Fortune +1 | Iron -20, Fortune -1 |
What the chronicle records
Take the long bridge south (safe, 85%)
Success: Two dull days, dry boots. The wagoners sell you grain cheap out of boredom. → Food +60
Failure: The bridge toll has doubled since the war. You pay it, grumbling. → Food +20, Fortune -1
Swim the horses across (risky, 32%)
Success: The horses find the old causeway under the flood — across in an hour, and the far bank's fish weirs are untended. → Food +130, Renown +2, Fortune +1
Failure: A pack horse goes under and takes the tents with it. You cross, poorer and soaked. → Food -40, Fortune -2
Lash a raft from deadfall (even, 55%)
Success: The raft holds. You even ferry a stranded shepherd, who pays in cheese and gossip. → Food +80, Wood +30, Fortune +1
Failure: The raft breaks up midstream. Everyone lives; the axes don't. → Iron -20, Fortune -1
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take the long bridge south | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
| Swim the horses across | 20% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 44% |
| Lash a raft from deadfall | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.