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Expeditions
The Toll That Isn't
Armed men at a crossroads collecting 'the new lord's toll'. There is no new lord. Their spears are real enough.
- Entity ID
tax- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Pay and note the faces — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Refuse, hands on hilts — 32% base
- Can end the run early
- Yes
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pay and note the faces | safe | 85% | Food -20, Iron +60, Renown +2 | Food -50, Fortune -1 |
| Refuse, hands on hilts | risky | 32% | Renown +4, Fortune +1 | Food -40, Renown +1, Fortune -2, the party turns back |
| Leave the road, cut around | even | 55% | Food +50, Fortune +1 | Food -35, Fortune -1 |
What the chronicle records
Pay and note the faces (safe, 85%)
Success: You pay small, memorize well, and the true lord's captain pays a bounty for each face you can sketch. → Food -20, Iron +60, Renown +2
Failure: They want more than small. It stings, and the captain shrugs — 'everyone pays them, nobody sketches well.' → Food -50, Fortune -1
Refuse, hands on hilts (risky, 32%)
Success: Counting your party twice, they discover urgent business elsewhere. The next travelers pass free because of you. → Renown +4, Fortune +1
Failure: They don't blink. It goes to blades, briefly — you win the road and lose the day binding wounds. → Food -40, Renown +1, Fortune -2, the party turns back
Leave the road, cut around (even, 55%)
Success: A herder's track adds an hour and subtracts a robbery. His family sells you cheese that deserves a song. → Food +50, Fortune +1
Failure: The track dead-ends at a washout. Back to the road, where the toll has gone up out of spite. → Food -35, Fortune -1
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pay and note the faces | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
| Refuse, hands on hilts | 20% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 44% |
| Leave the road, cut around | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.