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Expeditions
The Feral Orchard
An orchard gone wild behind a fallen wall — apples heavy on every branch, and paths through the grass that no deer made.
- Entity ID
orchard- Choices offered
- 3
- Safest option
- Find who tends the paths — 85% base
- Riskiest option
- Camp and press cider — 32% base
- Can end the run early
- No
- Energy to mount a ranging
- 25 (three scenes per run)
Every choice, and exactly what it pays
The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.
| Choice | Odds | Base chance | On success | On failure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fill every sack | even | 55% | Food +120 | Food +40, Fortune -1 |
| Camp and press cider | risky | 32% | Food +200, Renown +1 | Food +20, Fortune -2 |
| Find who tends the paths | safe | 85% | Food +80, Wood -10, Renown +2, Fortune +1 | nothing gained, nothing lost |
What the chronicle records
Fill every sack (even, 55%)
Success: Sacks full, casks fuller. Whoever walks these paths didn't walk them today. → Food +120
Failure: The paths belong to bees — a hollow trunk of them. The retreat is fast and undignified, sacks half full. → Food +40, Fortune -1
Camp and press cider (risky, 32%)
Success: Two days, one borrowed press, and cider good enough to trade by the cask. The orchard forgives the trespass. → Food +200, Renown +1
Failure: The press jams, the mash sours, and the smell draws every wasp in the riverlands. You leave with vinegar. → Food +20, Fortune -2
Find who tends the paths (safe, 85%)
Success: A widow with a bad fence and a good heart. Repairs for apples — her rate is generous and her dog approves of you. → Food +80, Wood -10, Renown +2, Fortune +1
Failure: Nobody home but the dog, who is against you on principle. You leave with dignity and no apples. → nothing gained, nothing lost
Fortune, at this scene
| Choice | Fortune −3 | Fortune −1 | Fortune 0 | Fortune +1 | Fortune +3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fill every sack | 43% | 51% | 55% | 59% | 67% |
| Camp and press cider | 20% | 28% | 32% | 36% | 44% |
| Find who tends the paths | 73% | 81% | 85% | 89% | 95% |
Related
A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.
Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · A Watchfire Where None Should Be · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell
Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.