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Expeditions

A Watchfire Where None Should Be

A fire on the ridge above the road. Bandits watch roads; so do rangers, and so do frightened farm boys with one spear between them.

Entity ID
watchfire
Choices offered
3
Safest option
Slip past in the dark — 85% base
Riskiest option
Take the camp by surprise — 32% base
Can end the run early
No
Energy to mount a ranging
25 (three scenes per run)

Every choice, and exactly what it pays

The odds words are contracts, not atmosphere: safe is 85%, even is 55%, risky is 32%, and every one of those numbers is fixed and tested. Fortune then bends the roll by +4% per point, clamped at ±3 points, so a good early call buys slack later and two disasters make the rest of the road meaner. Nothing here is ever certain: the check is clamped to the 5%–95% band whatever your fortune.

A Watchfire Where None Should Be: the three roads out, with base odds and both outcomes.
ChoiceOddsBase chanceOn successOn failure
Hail the fire openlyeven55%Food +40, Renown +2, Fortune +2Fortune -1
Slip past in the darksafe85%nothing gained, nothing lostRenown -1, Fortune -1
Take the camp by surpriserisky32%Iron +90, Renown +3, Fortune -1Food -30, Renown -2, Fortune -2

What the chronicle records

Hail the fire openly (even, 55%)

Success: Rangers. They share the fire, the stew, and word of a rockslide you'd have found the hard way. → Food +40, Renown +2, Fortune +2

Failure: Bandits — but lazy ones. You back away with words and lose only the dark hours. → Fortune -1

Slip past in the dark (safe, 85%)

Success: You pass unseen. Whatever they were, they are somebody else's story now. → nothing gained, nothing lost

Failure: A dropped pot rings like a bell. You outrun the shouting, and your dignity stays on the hillside. → Renown -1, Fortune -1

Take the camp by surprise (risky, 32%)

Success: Deserters with stolen pay. They flee; the strongbox stays. → Iron +90, Renown +3, Fortune -1

Failure: It was rangers. The apology costs you your best wine and a week of jokes at your expense. → Food -30, Renown -2, Fortune -2

Fortune, at this scene

A Watchfire Where None Should Be: the real chance of each choice once fortune is counted.
ChoiceFortune −3Fortune −1Fortune 0Fortune +1Fortune +3
Hail the fire openly43%51%55%59%67%
Slip past in the dark73%81%85%89%95%
Take the camp by surprise20%28%32%36%44%

A ranging draws three scenes from the sixteen, deterministically from its seed, so this encounter can appear at any of the three stops. Guide: Mysteries of the Realm. Index: all 16 encounters · the whole database.

Other encounters: The Flooded Ford · The Barrow Door Stands Open · A Caravan in the Ditch · The Hermit's Toll · Wolves on the Kill · The Walking Septon · The Abandoned Quarry · An Uninvited Feast · The Cold Beacon · The Smugglers' Cache · A Singer with a Broken Lute · The Feral Orchard · The Mist That Doesn't Lift · The Toll That Isn't · The Night Something Fell

Every figure above is generated from the shipped game code — the same constants and formulas the running game uses — and regenerated whenever the balance changes. Nothing on this page is hand-typed.

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