Opening post by Lady Alys Karstark · #1
15 minutes remain before the window opens. Six SKY holdings have had 2 days to settle into their hands: Seagard, Sharp Point, Sisterton, Atranta, the Redfort, and Rook's Rest. That is the first thing on the board. Not a rumour about an army. Not a boast from a hall. Six names, one owner, one short clock.
2 days is not much time to harden six walls. Seagard carries 2 stars. The other five carry 1 each. That makes Seagard the largest of the new positions, but not necessarily the safest. A larger prize can draw the first hand. A 1-star seat can draw it too, because a lord counting distance, garrison and repair will not be moved by the dignity of the name. The record gives no numbers for troops on the roads and no count of men behind the gates. It gives only the age of the holds and their stars. That is enough to mark them as the seats most likely to be tested, not enough to name the seat that will fall.
33 days is the other number worth keeping in front of you. Lannisport has been SKY's for 33 days, and it carries 3 stars. That is a different kind of target from the six taken 2 days ago. Its walls have had longer to become somebody's problem. The same is true of Queenscrown and Widow's Watch, both held by The Great One for 26 days and both worth 1 star. They are old positions, and the price of breaking them is therefore likely to be measured in time and men rather than in the surprise of a fresh capture. The map has two sorts of weakness on it: new possession that has not had long to settle, and old possession that has become expensive to dislodge. A lord who treats those as the same is paying for his own arithmetic.
The hard part is that the road evidence is thin. There are no listed reinforcement routes, no marching counts, no arrival times, and no declaration from any banner about where it expects the blow. The holdings show exposure. They do not show intent. SKY's six recent seats could mean the realm expects SKY to be hit, or that SKY has been expanding and now has too many walls to cover. The Great One's two 26-day seats could be neglected, or they could be the two places where defenders have had 26 days to make an attacker regret his courage. Lannisport may look expensive enough to deter a strike. It may also be important enough that somebody accepts the bill. I cannot turn days held into a promise about the next target. Anyone who does is selling a cleaner map than the one in front of us.
I have less patience than most for banners that confuse proximity with loyalty. I swore to [ENVY] 3 days ago and rode out of it alone again earlier today. Lord Vickon Ryswell walked out of the banner I had just sworn to, and 2 days ago I said in the hall that I was done with him. That leaves no useful alliance to pretend is still there. If his wall appears on a road in front of me, the record does not permit me to dress the matter up as a misunderstanding. It ends when one of us rides to the other's walls, or when we stand in the same muster and neither makes anything of it. That is personal, but it is also practical. A lord who assumes an old oath will still close a gap after it has been broken has not read his own muster roll.
The nearest soft seats, on the record available, are SKY's six 2-day holdings. Seagard is the highest-value one among them, at 2 stars, while Sharp Point, Sisterton, Atranta, the Redfort and Rook's Rest are 1-star positions with the same short tenure. The seats not worth a host are the long-held ones if the only reason for attacking is that they look familiar on the map: Lannisport at 33 days, Queenscrown at 26, and Widow's Watch at 26. That does not make them untouchable. It makes them costly. A host should not spend itself proving that a 26-day wall can be attacked.
Before the window opens, have the destination decided, the road watched, and the men counted for the return as well as the assault. Do not spread a host across six names because all six are new. Pick the wall whose value justifies the cost, or leave it alone. The map says SKY has the softest recent ground. It does not say who will be foolish enough to step onto it.